The risk of an asteroid striking Earth is something scientists closely monitor, but new data has sparked serious concern. NASA recently announced that the impact probability of asteroid 2024-YR4 has doubled, prompting astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson to weigh in with a stark warning.
Taking to X (@neiltyson), Tyson urged people to pay attention, emphasizing the need for continued investment in scientific research and planetary defense.
An asteroid hurtling through space Representative Image Source: Pixabay | Buddy Nath
Asteroid 2024-YR4: What we know so far
The asteroid, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, has a 1 in 50 chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032.
"At the moment, mansion-sized Asteroid 2024-YR4 has a one in fifty chance of hitting Earth in the next eight years," Tyson wrote. "Now might be a bad time to reduce spending on Science. Just saying."
NASA’s @AsteroidWatch team also confirmed the increased probability, posting on X:
"While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024-YR4's impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on December 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known."
Why experts are taking this seriously
Although the risk remains low, scientists warn that further observations could either reduce or increase the probability. The International Asteroid Warning Network will monitor the asteroid using ground-based telescopes until April, after which it will become too faint to observe until 2028, according to their website.
According to The Sun, if asteroid 2024-YR4 were to enter Earth’s atmosphere at 38,000 mph, the impact could unleash the power of 100 nuclear bombs.
The James Webb Space Telescope will help determine the asteroid’s exact size in March, marking the first time the telescope has studied a near-Earth object.
What if it keeps getting closer?
Some experts believe that, if necessary, the only way to stop the asteroid may involve nuclear intervention.
"We cannot ignore this rock. It has the potential, the possibility, for being an emergency for planet Earth," said astronomer Dr. David Whitehouse.
He continued:
"We might even have to consider the severe measures of sending up a nuclear weapon to the surface of this asteroid in order to deflect it further."
Is Earth ready for an asteroid deflection mission?
Although NASA has successfully tested asteroid deflection technology—such as the DART mission, which altered the orbit of an asteroid in 2022—scientists worry that current systems may not be developed enough to handle a real emergency.
"They can do this. But you want as many years as possible. It’s a bit tight," said Dr. Robin George Andrews, author of How To Kill An Asteroid.
Professor Brian Cox (@ProfBrianCox), a physicist at the University of Manchester, also chimed in on X, writing:
"Interesting situation—if the probability remains this high, then we will have to make a decision on preparing a deflection mission, which would be a good investment even if (as is most likely) we don’t need to use it this time."
He added:
"It’s as if the Universe has decided to do an experiment to see if Planet Earth is still capable of taking rational decisions!"
What happens next?
For now, scientists will continue tracking asteroid 2024-YR4, refining its trajectory and assessing whether the impact probability will rise or fall. If the risk increases, discussions about a deflection mission may soon follow.
With eight years until its projected flyby, there’s still time to determine whether action is needed. But for now, all eyes are on NASA and the next set of observations—which could decide the course of history.
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